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A newly released Datafolha survey has given a fresh look at the early landscape of the presidential race. The poll outlines where major candidates stand in a crowded first-round field as the political campaign season heats up across the country.
What the Numbers Show
According to the Datafolha survey released on Thursday, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) registers 38% of voting intentions for the first round. Close behind is Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 33% in a scenario that includes 13 candidates, among them figures like Pablo Marçal (PRTB), who currently remains legally ineligible.
Further down the list, Augusto Cury (Avante) captures the third spot with 7% of the vote. Renan Santos (Missão) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) follow with 4% each, while Romeu Zema (Novo) and Pablo Marçal register 2% each.
Why It Matters
This tight margin signals a deeply polarized electorate, underlining the enduring strength of both the traditional left under Lula and the conservative right represented by the Bolsonaro political family. For political strategists, a five-point gap within a wide 13-candidate field demonstrates that no single contender has secured a dominant lock on the electorate, keeping the possibility of a high-stakes runoff election very much alive.
The inclusion of candidates like Marçal—despite his current ineligibility—highlights how legal battles and candidate disqualifications could continue to shift voter migration patterns before election day.
Survey Methodology
Commissioned jointly by TV Globo and the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, the polling effort gathered responses from 2,002 individuals across Brazil between September 1 and September 2, 2026.
The research carries a 95% confidence level, with margins varying depending on specific demographic filters. The study is officially registered with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under the identification number BR-03669/2026.
Voter Demographics Analyzed
Beyond top-line voting percentages, the comprehensive Datafolha report breaks down voter intentions across several key segments. Analysts are closely examining regional preferences, gender divides, age groups, educational backgrounds, household income tiers, religious affiliations, and racial self-identification to understand how each candidate builds their support base.
What's Next
As the electoral calendar moves forward, these granular data points will help campaigns target undecided voters and adjust their messaging. Watch for upcoming televised debates, legal updates regarding ineligible candidates, and subsequent polling cycles to see if Lula can widen his lead or if Flávio Bolsonaro can close the remaining gap.
