The race for the Élysée Palace in 2027 is already taking shape. A fresh Ipsos/BVA survey published by Le Parisien reveals critical shifts in French public opinion.
While the far-right remains heavily favored to dominate the first round, the battle to face them in the runoff is turning into a high-stakes chess match for the political center and left.
Le Pen Holds a Commanding Lead
Marine Le Pen, the figurehead of the National Rally (Rassemblement National), continues to pace the field. The poll places her first-round voting intentions at a commanding 34% to 36%.
This solidifies her position at the top of the board. Her support has stabilized at a high level, mirroring the strong numbers captured by party leader Jordan Bardella in previous surveys conducted earlier this summer. At this stage, Le Pen’s ticket to the second round appears highly secure.
The Center’s High-Stakes Dilemma
For the center-right "central bloc," former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe (leader of the Horizons party) has cemented himself as the most viable candidate to challenge Le Pen in the runoff. However, his path to the second round is entirely dependent on party unity.
- The Unified Scenario: If Philippe runs as the primary candidate for the center without former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal on the ballot, he secures 19% of the vote. This comfortably places him four points ahead of left-wing firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon (15%) and secures his spot in the second round.
- The Spoiler Scenario: If both Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal run, the centrist vote splits. Under this configuration, Philippe drops to 14.5%, Attal takes 7.5%, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon edges past them both with 15% to claim the second-round spot against Le Pen.
Shifting Tides on the Left and Right
On the left, Raphaël Glucksmann (Place Publique) is emerging as a formidable force, polling between 11.5% and 14%. He runs neck-and-neck with Attal if the latter represents the presidential majority, and easily outpaces Socialist Party (PS) leader Olivier Faure, who struggles at just 5.5%. Meanwhile, Marine Tondelier of the Green party sits between 3.5% and 5.5%.
On the traditional right, Bruno Retailleau (Les Républicains) has slipped slightly to 7.5%, down 1.5 points since June. Notably, former President François Hollande, who is waiting until December to announce a potential bid, was not tested in this round of polling.
