Brazil’s political landscape is shifting. A new Atlas/Bloomberg poll released on Monday, August 31, reveals that while President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains his lead in all major election scenarios, a surprise challenger is shaking up the status quo.
The survey of 5,014 Brazilians—conducted between August 25 and 30 with a 1% margin of error and a 95% confidence level—captures voter sentiment immediately following the first televised debates and major media interviews.
Here is what you need to know about the latest numbers.
The Rise of a Surprise Challenger
While President Lula retains a nearly ten-point lead in the first-round matchups, the real headline is the sudden surge of writer Augusto Cury (Avante). Historically a quiet player in presidential polling, Cury jumped from 3% in July to 7.8% in August, overtaking Renan Santos (Missão) within the margin of error.
Cury’s rise follows his participation in the Band debate on August 23 and a high-profile TV Globo interview on August 29. Notably, Cury also boasts the lowest rejection rate among all candidates at just 18.5%.
Lula and Flávio Face Slow Declines
Despite leading the race, both frontrunners are experiencing a gradual loss of momentum:
- Lula (PT): Remains in first place but has been on a downward trajectory since June.
- Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ): Holds second place but has seen his numbers slowly melt since April.
This decline is mirrored in their exceptionally high rejection rates. Flávio Bolsonaro (52.7%) and Lula (52%) are statistically tied for the highest rejection among voters. Interestingly, when asked which outcome causes more anxiety, a majority of respondents stated that Lula's reelection is more concerning than a potential Flávio Bolsonaro victory.
What the Second-Round Scenarios Reveal
In the simulated head-to-head matchups for a second-round run-off, Lula wins every tested scenario. The polling agency did not test Augusto Cury in the second round, despite his recent growth.
The poll also tested a hypothetical matchup between Lula and ineligible former President Jair Bolsonaro, who remains jailed. In this scenario, Lula still emerges victorious, though it yields the narrowest margin of victory among all potential matchups.
